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AIAI briefMeeting brief2025-12-10Fed

Fed Cuts Rate to 3-1/2–3-3/4 Percent

The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. The Committee said it judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months. 1
The statement says economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, job gains have slowed this year, and inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. 1
Chair Powell said the Committee also decided to initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities solely to maintain an ample supply of reserves over time, supporting effective control of the policy rate. 1
Powell said labor market conditions appear to be gradually cooling and inflation remains somewhat elevated. He noted that some federal government data had yet to be released. 1
The minutes say market participants and the Desk survey generally expected a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting. The modal outlook implied two additional cuts next year. 1
The December Summary of Economic Projections shows median real GDP growth of 1.7 in 2025 and 2.3 in 2026. Unemployment is projected at 4.5 in 2025 and 4.4 in 2026. 1

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