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AIAI briefMeeting brief2025-09-17Fed

Fed Lowers Policy Rate by 1/4 Point

The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4-1/4 percent. It cited the shift in the balance of risks. 12
The Committee judges that downside risks to employment have risen. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. 12
The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. 12
Chair Powell said GDP rose at a pace of around 1½ percent in the first half of the year, down from 2.5 percent last year. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent in August. 1
Median projections show GDP growth of 1.6 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026, and an unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026. 1
Before the meeting, almost all Desk survey respondents expected a 25 basis point cut, and around half expected another at the October meeting. 1

Cited releases · 4