FOMC, June 17, 2026: Federal funds rate target range held at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent
The FOMC voted 12–0 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. 12
The statement says economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East, with strong productivity growth and capital investment. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. 12
The statement says inflation remains elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. 1
The minutes say optimism about a near-term resolution of the Middle East conflict and a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding pushed the oil futures curve and near-term inflation compensation materially lower relative to the April FOMC meeting. Expected policy rates, Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and domestic equity prices all rose. 1
The Summary of Economic Projections shows median real GDP growth of 2.2 percent for 2026, 2.3 for 2027 and 2.2 for 2028, and an unemployment rate of 4.3, 4.3 and 4.2 percent for those years. PCE inflation is projected at 3.6 percent for 2026 and 2.3 percent for 2027. 1