【発言要旨】「経済成長をファイナンスするための資金供給 ― シュンペーター的な視点 ―」（GIC主催コンファランス）

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 㸰㸮㸯㸰ᖺ㸯㸰᭶㸱᪥᪥ᮏ㖟⾜᪥ᮏ㖟⾜๪⥲⿢ すᮧ  ῤᙪ㈨㔠౪⤥どⅬ̿̿ࢫࣥࣛ࢓ࣇࣥࢥᢒヂ 1࡚࠼ࠊࡣ࡟࡛ࡲࡿࠊ࡚࠸ࡘ࡟₯ࡣࣕࢠᙅࡇࡿࡍ⌧ᅾ㔠฼ࠊ࡟࡜ࡶࢆࠋࡿ࠸࡚ࡋᶆ‽ⓗᚲせࡍࢺ࣮࣏ࢧࢆࡳ㠀࡜ࡢࡶ࡞㔠฼࡞࡟ࡿ1࡜ࡓࠊࡾ࠶࡛ 1 ࠊࡋᡂ㛗ࡿ࡞࡟࠺ࡼ࠺ࡽࡵࡓࢆࡆపୗࡢపୗᅽࠋࡿ࡞࡟࡜ࡇࡿࡍ࣮ࣝࡿࡌ㍺ฟ௻ᴗබ㉎㈙ຊᖹ౯ 㸦㹎 2ࡁ࡛ࡀ࡜ࡇࡍࡰࡁ࡛ࡀ࡜ࡇࡍࡰࠋࡿ࠼ᚋ㑇ࡀࡿ࠸࡚ࢀࡉࡀ2࡟ࡿࢀࡽ࠼3ࠋ࡟ࡿࢀࢃ4ࠋ࠼ࡓࡳࡽ࠿ࡢࠋ࠸ࡓࡁ࠾࡚ࡗ᪥ᮏᖺࢀࡲ ࡋࠋࡓࡋ2 Reinhart and Rogoff㸦2012ࡸIMF㸦2009ࠋ3 ࠸࡜ࡿࡲ௻ᴗ᝟ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡᝟ሗ㏻ಙࠊࡵࡓࡓ࠸ࠋࡿ࠸࡚ࢀࡉࡣࡃࡋMinetaki and Nishimura㸦2010ࠋ4 Gordon㸦2012ࠊࡣࡁ๰ฟࡏࡉୗⴠࡗ࠺ࡲࡋ࡚ࢀࢃ㸦すᮧ 2012ࠋ 3ఙࡀࢡ࣮ࣆࡢࣝࣈࣂᚋ㸦ᖺປാ⏕⏘ࠋࡿ࠿ࢃࡀ࡜ࡇࡿ࠶࡛ࡢࡶࡿࡼ࡟ࡣࡇࠊࡀࡿࡁ࡛ࣂࡸ࡟࠿࡯ࡢ5⏕⏘㔜ࣝࣈࣂࡣ࡟ࢀࡇࠊࡀࡓࡋ᭱ඃඛㄢ࡟ࠋࡓ࠸࡚ࡋࡶࡿࡍ࡜࢔ࢪ࢔ࡣࠊࡋ࠿ࡋࠋࡓࡁ࡚ࡋࢆࡽ࠿ࡇࢆࡓࡋ࠺ࡇࠋࡿ࠸࡚ࡋ᪥ 5 ࡇࡿ࠶࡛ࡢࡇࠋࡓࢀࡉ࡜ࡢࡶࡿࡼ࡟ࠋࡓࢀࡽࡳࡀMinetaki and Nishimura㸦2010ࠋ6 ࠋ

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4ࡽ࠼ࠋࡿࢀᙺ๭ᡂ㛗ᮇ࡞࡜௜ຍ౯ࠊ࠿ࡿࡍࢺࢵ࢝ࡅࡔࡿࡁ࡛ࢆࢺࢫࢥࠊࡣ࡟ࢀࡑࠋࡿ࠶࡛࡜ࡇࡃ࠸࡚ࡵேཱྀᡂ㛗ࠊࡤࢀ࠶࡛ࡿ࠼࠸࡜ࡿ࠸࡚ࡋ7ே㟂せࡾࠊࡀ࡜ࡇࡿࡍࠋࡿࡃ࡚ࡗ࡞࡟ࡋ࠺ࡑࠊࡣ࡛✚ᴟࡉࡋࠊࢆࣥࣙࢩ࣮࣋ࣀ࢖ࡿࡍ 7 ࣭ࡁࠋࡓࡗ࠶࡟࡜ࡇ࠺Ᏻ౯ࡵࡓࡃ࠸࡚ࡋࡀᅜࠊࡶ࡜ࡇࡓࡁ࡚ࡋࣉࢵ࢔ࢳࢵࣕ࢟࡬௻ࡢࠋࡓࡗ࠸࡚ࡗ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡋ 5ࢱ࣮࣌ࣥࣗࢩࠊࡣࡢࡓࡋࡓࡗ࠶࡛8ࠋᙺ๭㸧⤖ྜᥦ࡛ࡇࡇࠊࢇࢁࡕࡶࠋࡿࡲࣆ࣮ࣕ࢟ࣕࢳࣥ࣋ࡣ࡛ࠋࡿࢀࡲ஦ࡋࡤࡋࠊࡾ࠶࡛ࡓࡵࠊ࡚ࡋ࡜ࡵࡌࡣࢆᶵࡿ࠶࡛9ࡍ௻ࡿࡁ࡛ࡀ࡜ࡇࡿ10㛗ᐇ⌧࠸࡚ࡵࡃ11ࠋ 8 Schumpeter 1926ࠋ9 ᳨ウ౛㈨㔠࢖ࣂࠊࡾࡼ࡟࡜ࡇ࠺㸦Michalopoulos et al. 2009ࠋ10 ࡗ࠿࡞ࡉࡓࠋࡓࢀ࠿11 Michalopoulos et al. 2009ࠊࡋᶵ⬟ࠋࡿ࠶࡛ࡢࡶࡓ࡚ 6ᚲせᛶ㸧᪂ᕷ࡝ࡢࡀࡿ࠶࡛ࡎࡣࡿ࡞࡟12ࠊࡋ࠿ࡋࠋࡿࡍ13⌮ㄽᚓࠋࡿࢀࡽࡿ࡞ࡃࡋࡲ㟂せ࡟ᑠࡿ࠶࡛ࡵࡓࡴ14㹐㸤ᣦ࠸࡞࠸࡚ࡋ࡜࠸࡞࠸࡚ࡋࡓ‶ࢆ᥮࣏ࢧ࡛ᝏ໬ಙ୙ἣᮇ㛗 12 Aghion et al. 2005, 2010ࠋ13 Aghion et al. 2008ࠊMannasoo and Merikull 2011ࠋ14 ࠊࡀⅬ࠺࠸࡜ࡿࡍὙίຠᯝ㸦cleansing effectゝࠊࡀࡿ࠶ࡀ࡜ࡇࡿࢀࡽ࠸ࠋࡿ࠶࡛

§3

7ࠋࡃ࠸࡚ࡗࡲ୙ἣࡿࢀࡉࡗࡶࠋࡿ࠶ࡀࡿࡍࠋࡀࡿ࠶࡛ᚲせᛶ㸧㔠⼥ᙜᒁ㸧ࣙࢩ࣮࣋ࣀ࢖ࠊࡣ࡟ࡘ࡟࠸࡜ࡍࡳ࡚ࡗ࡜࡟㑏ඖࡿ࠶ࠎ15ࠊ᩿ࡿ࠸࡚ࢀࢃ16እ㒊ᛶࡲࠋࡿ࠶ࡀࡃ࡚ࡗ࡞࡟ 15ࠊࡕࢃ࡞ࡍࠋࡿࡍ࠸࡚ࡋ♫఍ⓗࠋࡿ࠶ࡀ16఍♫࠸࡚ࢀࡉ࡞ࡀࡗ࠶ࡀࡓࡋ࠺ࡇࠊ࡚ࡋ࡜࡜ࡇ࠺࠸࡜ࡿ࠶ࡀ㔜すᮧ㸦2004ࠋ 8࠶ࡿ࡞࡜࠺࡞ࢭࣥ࢖ࡿࡍ฼⏝᝟ሗ⏕⏘⬟ຊ̿᭷Ⅼࡢ࡟ࡵࡓࡿࡍ㈨࡛ᣑᇶ࠼ࠋࡿࢀࡽ㈨㔠౪⤥࡟ᖺ࠿࡯ࡓࡋ17ᮏᖺࠊࡋ࡜ࡲࢆ࡜ࠖࠋ࠺ࢁࡔࡿࡁ࡛ࡀ࡜ࡇࡪ 17すᮧ2010࡞ࠋ 9ࡇࡃ࠸࡚ࡵࡋࡼ࡟࡜ࡇࡿࡍࠋࡿ࠶࡛ࡢࡶࡓࡋࠊ࡚࠸ࡘ࡟᪥ᮏ㖟ࡲࡢࡵࡓࡿࡍ࠶࡛ࡢࡶࡓ࣭࠺ࡼࡢࡇࠋࡿ࠸࡚ࡗ࡞ࡃࡁᡂ㛗ᇶࠋࡿࢀࡽࡳ࡜ࡿ࠸࡚ࡋ࡚࡟ά⏝┠ୖࡿࡍ18ᑐ୙ࠊ࡟♫఍ⓗ཰┈⋡እ㒊ᛶࠋࡿ࠶࡛࡜ࡇࡿ࠸࡚ࡋ࡜࠺࠾ 18ࡃ࢛ࣇࣃࡢࡓࡗ࠿࡞࠸࡚ࡋࡓ㸦Fukao et al. 2005ࠋ 10ຠ⋡ᛶྥ᥎ዡබⓗᙜඃ఩ࡿ࡞19ࢆ㔠⼥ᨻ࠼ᡂ㛗ᮇᚅ᪥࡜ࡇࡿࡼ࠼࠸࡜ࡿ࠸࡚ࡋࠋ࠺ᒎᮃ₯ࡣࡔࡿࡀ࡞ࡘ࡟ᡤࡿࢀࡉ࢖ࢧࠋࡿࡍࢆࢆࡿࡍࡃࡁ20పୗ 19ࡣAghion 2012ࠊ࠾࡞ࠋࡿࢀࡽࡳࡶ࡟Aghion et al. 2012ࡀ⌮ㄽࠋࡿ࠸࡚ࡋ20 Guerrieri and Lorenzoni 2011ࡍ࠸࡞࡟ࠊࡵࡓࡿࡏࡉ

§4

11ᅔ㞴ୖ࠶ࡀࠋࡿඛ㐍ࡶ࡟␗ࡵࡓࡿࡍࢫࣥࢼ࢖࢓ࣇࢆࡢ㈨㔠౪⤥㸦Funding for Lending Schemeࡢ࡛ࠋࡿࢀࡽ࠼௨ ୖ ࠋࡿ࠸࡚ࡋEggertson and Krugman 2012ࡾᅽຊࠋࡿ࠸࡚ࡋ

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12ࠚすᮧῤᙪ㸦2004᪥ᮏ⤒῭᪂⪺♫すᮧῤᙪ㸦2010㛵ᮾ⤒῭⏘ᴗ࣒࢘ࢪ࣏ࣥࢩ2010ࠊ2010 ᖺ 12᭶ 2 ᪥すᮧῤᙪ㸦2012ࡸ࣮ࣆࢫࡿࡅ࠾࡟ࠊࢳ2012 ᖺ 8 ᭶ 27 ᪥Aghion, P. (2012), "From Growth Theory to Growth Policy Design," LSE, Economic &Social Research Council (E.S.R.C.).Aghion, P., G.-M. Angeletos, A. Banerjee, and K. Manova (2005), "Volatility andGrowth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBERWorking Paper Series No.11349.Aghion, P., G.-M. Angeletos, A. Banerjee, and K. Manova (2010), "Volatility andGrowth: Credit Constraints and the Composition of Investment," Journal ofMonetary Economics, Vol.57, pp.246–265.Aghion, P., P. Ashkenazy, N. Berman, G. Cette and L. Eymard (2008), "CreditConstraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from France,"Banque de France, Notes d'états et de Recherche-R#198.Aghion, P., E. Farhi, and E. Kharroubi (2012), "Monetary Policy, Liquidity, andGrowth," NBER Working Paper Series No.18072.Eggertson, G. and P. Krugman (2012), "Debt, Deleveraging and the Liquidity Trap: AFisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," Federal Reserve Bank of New York, WorkingPaper.Fukao, K., K. G. Nishimura, Q.-Y . Sui, and M. Tomiyama (2005), "Japanese Banks'Monitoring Activities and the Performance of Borrower Firms: 1981-1996,"International Economics and Economic Policy, Vol.2, No.4, pp.337-362.IMF (2009), "What’s the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after FinancialCrises," World Economic Outlook, Chapter 4, October 2009.Gordon, R. J. (2012), "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confrontsthe Six Headwinds," NBER Working Paper Series No.18315.Guerrieri, V . and G. Lorenzoni (2011), "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings and theLiquidity Trap," MIT, mimeo.Mannasoo, K. and J. Merikull (2011), "R&D in Boom and Bust: Evidence from theWorld Bank Financial Crisis Survey," Working Papers of Eesti Pank No.7/2011.Michalopoulos, S., L. Laeven, and R. Levine (2009), "Financial Innovation andEndogenous Growth," NBER Working Paper Series No.15356.Minetaki, K. and K. G. Nishimura (2010), Information Technology Innovation and theJapanese Economy, Stanford University Press.

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13Reinhart, C. M. and K. Rogoff (2012), "This Time is Different, Again? The US FiveYears After the Onset of Subprime," VOX.Schumpeter, J. A. (1926), Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung: Eine Untersuchungüber Unternehmergewinn, Kapital, Kredit, Zins und den Konjunkturzyklus , 2ndrevised ed. Leipzig: Duncker & Humblot.ᮾ⏿⢭୍ࠊ1977 ᖺ㸧 ⤒῭ᡂ㛗䜢䝣䜯䜲䝘䞁䝇䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾㈨㔠౪⤥/g888/g888䝅䝳䞁䝨䞊䝍䞊ⓗ䛺どⅬ/g888/g888㻳㻵㻯䝁䞁䝣䜯䝺䞁䝇䛂ୡ⏺㔠⼥༴ᶵ䠖᪥ᮏ䛛䜙䛾ᩍカ䛃ᖺ ᭶ ᪥2012ᖺ12᭶3᪥᪥ᮏ㖟⾜๪⥲⿢すᮧῤᙪᅗ⾲䠍᪥ᮏ䛾ᐇ㉁㻳㻰㻼ᡂ㛗⋡㸣㸧 㸣㸦㹼ᖺ㸧 㸣㸦ᖺ௦㸧㸣㸦ᖺ௦㸧㸣㸦ᖺ௦㸧㸣㸦ᖺ௦㸧             ᖺ㸦㈨ᩱ㸧ෆ㛶ᗓᖺ

§7

ᅗ⾲䠎᪥ᮏ䛾ᐇ㉁㻳㻰㻼ᡂ㛗⋡䛾せᅉศゎ㸣㸧⋡ປാᢞධ㸦ᑵᴗ⪅ᩘ㸧ኚ໬⋡ ᐇ㉁㹅㹂㹎ᡂ㛗⋡㸣㸣ࡋ㸣㸣㸣  㸣㸣 㸣㸣ᖺ௦ ᖺ௦ ᖺ௦  ᖺ௦ ᖺ௦ ᖺ௦ ᖺ௦䠄ὀ䠅㻞㻜㻝㻞ᖺ௨㝆䛾ᑵᴗ⪅ᩘኚ໬⋡䛿䚸ᑗ᮶ேཱྀ䛾᥎ィ್䠄ฟ⏕୰఩䚸Ṛஸ୰఩䛾䜿䞊䝇䠅䛸ປാຊ⋡䛾ぢ㏻䛧䠄ྛᖺ㱋ᒙ䞉ྛᛶู䛾ປാຊ⋡䛜㻞㻜㻝㻜ᖺ䛾್䛷ᶓ䜀䛔䛷᥎⛣䛸௬ᐃ䛧䛯䜒䛾䠅䛛䜙ヨ⟬䛧䛯ປാຊேཱྀ䛾ᖺᖹᆒኚ໬⋡䚹䠄㈨ᩱ䠅 ෆ㛶ᗓ䚸⥲ົ┬䚸ᅜ❧♫఍ಖ㞀䞉ேཱྀၥ㢟◊✲ᡤᅗ⾲䠏୺せᅜ䛾⥲ேཱྀ1ேᙜ䛯䜚ᐇ㉁GDPᡂ㛗⋡㻡䠄㻝㻜ᖺ㛫䛾ᖹᆒᡂ㛗⋡䚸䠂䠅㻠㻌㻡㻌᪥ᮏ ⡿ᅜ 䝗䜲䝒䝣䝷䞁䝇 ⱥᅜ 䝇䝨䜲䞁䜲䝍䝸䜰㻟㻌䜲䝍䝸䜰㻝㻌㻞㻌㻜㻌㻙㻝㻌㻝㻥㻣㻝㻙㻤㻜㻣㻟㻙㻤㻞㻣㻡㻙㻤㻠㻣㻣㻙㻤㻢㻣㻥㻙㻤㻤㻤㻝㻙㻥㻜㻤㻟㻙㻥㻞㻤㻡㻙㻥㻠㻤㻣㻙㻥㻢㻤㻥㻙㻥㻤㻥㻝㻙㻜㻜㻥㻟㻙㻜㻞㻥㻡㻙㻜㻠㻥㻣㻙㻜㻢㻥㻥㻙㻜㻤㻜㻝㻙㻝㻜ᖺ䠄㈨ᩱ䠅㼁㼚㼕㼠㼑㼐㻺㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㼟䚸ྛᅜ⤫ィᖺ

§8

ᅗ⾲䠐ᡂ㛗ᇶ┙ᙉ໬䜢ᨭ᥼䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾㈨㔠౪⤥ᡂ㛗ᇶ┙ᙉ໬䜢ᨭ᥼䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾㈨㔠౪⤥ᮏ๎ 䠝䠞䠨➼≉๎35000 䠄൨෇䠅1500䠄൨෇䠅2000025000300001000150050001000015000500ᑠཱྀ≉๎ ⡿䝗䝹≉๎010/91211/3691212/36912010/91211/3691212/36912᭶䠄ⓒ୓⡿䝗䝹䠅᭶䠄൨෇䠅150020002500 䠄ⓒ୓⡿䝗䝹䠅100 䠄൨෇䠅500100050䠄ὀ䠅 ྛ᫬Ⅼ䛾㈚௜ṧ㧗䛾ぢ㎸䜏䚹䛯䛰䛧䚸 2010ᖺ12᭶䛾䜏䛿ᐇ⦼䚹䠄ฟᡤ䠅 ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜010/91211/3691212/36912 ᭶010/91211/3691212/36912 ᭶㔠⼥ᶵ㛵➼䛻䜘䜛ᡂ㛗ᇶ┙ᙉ໬䛻ྥ䛡䛯ྲྀ䜚⤌䜏䠖ᅗ⾲䠑㔠⼥ᶵ㛵➼䛻䜘䜛ᡂ㛗ᇶ┙ᙉ໬䛻ྥ䛡䛯ྲྀ䜚⤌䜏䠖ᡂ㛗ศ㔝ู䛾ಶูᢞ⼥㈨㢠㸦඙෇㸧࣭࢚࣭௓࢖ࣥ࢔ࢪ࢔ᢞ◊✲㛤Ⓨ࣭㒔஦ᴗ෌⦅㎰ᯘỈ⏘㧗㱋⪅ྥ㞠⏝ᨭ᥼ࢫࢺほග ㈨※☜ಖࢸࣥࢥ࣭ࣥ⫱࣭ᢏ࢚勖௓ㆤࣥᩚഛᢞ㈨஦ᴗⓎ 㒔ᕷ෌⏕⦅ ⏘ ྥࡅ᥼ࢺࢡ໬ಖ㛤Ⓨࣥࢶ⫱ඣᢏ⾡◊✲䠄ὀ䠅 ᮏ㈨㔠౪⤥䛾䛂➨䠍䡚㻝㻜ᅇ䠘ᮏ๎䠚䚸➨䠒ᮇ䠘䠝䠞䠨➼≉๎䠚䛚䜘䜃➨䠏ᮇ䠘ᑠཱྀ≉๎䠚ศ䛃䛸䛧䛶ᥦฟ䛥䜜䚸ᡂ㛗ᇶ┙ᙉ໬䛻ྥ䛡䛯ྲྀ䜚⤌䜏᪉㔪䛾䜒䛸䛷ᐇ⾜䛥䜜䛯䛣䛸䛜☜ㄆ䛥䜜䛯䛂ಶูᢞ⼥㈨ᐇ⦼䛃䛾ศᕸ≧ἣ䠄䠝䠞䠨➼≉๎䛿ฟ㈨➼䛻㝈䜛䠅䚹➨䠍䡚㻝㻜ᅇ䠘ᮏ๎䠚䚸➨䠒ᮇ䠘䠝䠞䠨➼≉๎䠚䛚䜘䜃➨䠏ᮇ䠘ᑠཱྀ≉๎䠚ศ䛾ಶูᢞ⼥㈨䛾༢⣧ྜィ䛷䛒䜚䚸ᮇ᪥๓㏉῭䜔⣙ᐃᘚ῭➼䛻䜘䜛ῶᑡ䜢཯ᫎ䛧䛶䛔䛺䛔䚹䠄ฟᡤ䠅 ᪥ᮏ㖟⾜