【講演】「人口動態の変化、情報通信技術の影響とグローバル化：やや長い目で危機後の世界を考える」（トルコ中銀主催セミナー）
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§1
㸰㸮㸯㸰ᖺ㸶᭶㸰㸵᪥᪥ᮏ㖟⾜᪥ᮏ㖟⾜⥲ すᮧῤᙪ㸸ࡿ࠼ؐؐ ༠ຊ᭷ࠊࢆࡇࡓࢀࡽ࠼ࠋࡍࡲࡾ࠾࡛ࢇࣟ࢟༠ຊࠊᙜࢤࣜࣇࡔࢇࡣࡗ࡞ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚࠾࡚ࡋࡶࡓࢀࡉᮏ㛵ࡍࠋࡍࡲ࠸㩭࣐᫂ࢫ࣑ࡿࡅ࠾ࡢࡽ࡞᭱ࠋࡍࡲࡋࡓ࠸ పືྥࡣ⚾࡚࠸࠾࡞ࡲࡲࡔࢇࡀࡵࠋࡍ࡛ࡇࡓࡁ࡚ࡗቑ࣋ࠊ࡚ࡋࡢࡶࡍປാᕷ㞠⏝⪅ࡶࡿࢀࡉࡇࡿࡍࡾࡓࠋࡍࡲࡾ࡞ࡍ࡛ࡢࡶࡓࡋୗࢃࡀࡇࡓ࠸ᅜ㝿㔠⼥ࡲࡕࠊࡢࡢࡶࡿ࠸࡚ࡋࡣ⛣ືࠋࡍࡲ࠼ ࡶࡢປാ࠸࡚ࢀࡉኻᴗࢫࡢࠊࡣ࡛᭤⥺ࠋࡍࡲࡾࢃࡀࡇࡓࡗ࠸࡚ࡋࡳࢆ⤒῭ᡂ㛗⋡࡚࠸ࡘࢱ࣮ࢹࡢ࣏࣭ࣥࢺࣥࢭ࣮ࣃࡾࡲࡘࠋࡍࡲࡾ࡞ࡣࡁపᩚྜⓗኚ࡛ࡀࡇࡍ࡞ࡳࠋࡍࡲࡁࠋࡍࡲࢀࡽ⦆ࡓࡗ࠶ࡀࢡࢵࣙࢩ࣭ࣂࣜࣃࡿࡺࢃ࠸ࠊࡣࡳࢆࠋࡍࡲ࠼࠸ࡿ࠸࡚ࡋ ࡕࡅ࠾ࠊ࠺ࡼࡿࢃࡽࢀࡇࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋࠊࡣࠊࡤࢀ࠼㯤Ⰽୖ᪼ࡲ࠸࡚ࡗ ࡣࡇࡓࡋࠋࡍࡲࡾ࡞ࢺࣇࢩࡢྠཧ⪃ࡲ࠸࡚ࡗ࡞ ࡣࢆࡇࡿ࠼ᐇ㝿 ࢀࡇ㸧ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋఝ᪥ᮏྠ ࠾ࡶࢻࣛࢫࡢᚋࡲ࠸࡚ࡋ᭱㏆᭱ࠋࡍࡲࡾ࠶⛬ᗘ㸽ࢻࣛࢫࡢࡽ༴ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࢀࡲ࡛࡞ࡁࢀࡇࡾࡲࡘࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚࠸࡙ࡇࡿ࠸࡚ࡳࡿ࠸࡚ࡗࣞࡢ୍ࠊࡣ⤒ࠋࡍࡲࡾ࡞ࡇࡿ࠸࡚ࡳࡿ
§2
ࡇࡿ࠸࡚ࡁ࡚ࡗ࡞ࡃࡁぢ㎸ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡗ࡞ࡃࡲࡍࡲࡀࡇࡿࡍࠋࡍࡲ࠼࠸ࡿ࠸࡚ࡗ࡞ࡃࡋᅇࡶࡓࡉࣟࡀࡢ࠸࡞ࡲ࠸࡚ࢀࡉࡲせᅉࠋࡍࡲࡏࡉࡌࡇࡇࠊࡀࡍࡲ࠸࡚࠼ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡍ࠺ࡼࡋࡽࡀࡇࡄࡿ࠸࡚ࡁࡀࢀࡅ࡞ࡋࡿ⏕ ㄒ࠸ࡓࡋࡇࡿࢀࠋࡍࡲ࠸ࠊᙳ㡪ෑሗ㏻ಙࠋࡍ࡛పୗࠖࡇࠊࡣࣇࣛࢢࡢࡘࡓࡆ㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀࡢࠋࡍ࡛ࡢࡶࡓࡗᅜẸࡳࣇࣛࢢࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋ➨ ࠊࡌࡒࢀࡑࡣ࡚ࡋࢆື⏘౯ࡇࡿ࠸࡚ࡋ ࢱࣃࡢࡑࠊࡀࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࢀࡎ࠸࡚ࢀࡉࠋࡍࡲ㛗ࡃ࠸ࡀࠊࡣ࡚࠸࠾࠼ࢆࡇ࡞ࠊࠊࡡࡾࡀ࡞ࡘࣞࣇࢹࡣࢀࡇࠊࡎࠊࡽࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࢀࡽࡵࡋࡸࡿࡍᙧ࠼ࡓࠋࡍ࡛ࣝࣈࣂࡶࠋࡍ࡛ࡘࡢࡿ࡞ᔂቯࡍࠊ࡚ࡋ࣭ࢫࣥࣛࣂ࡞ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࠼ ࠊࡵࡓ࠸ㄪࡓࡋ࠺ࡇࠋࡍ࡛ࡽࡿࢀࡽ࠼㧗㱋పୗࠋࡍࡲࢀࡽ࠼㛫ࣥࣕࢳ࣭ࢫࢿࢪࣅ࡞ࡓୖ῝้ࡲࡾࡀ࡞ࡘࠋࡍࢀࡉࡽ࠼ࡋࠋࡍࡲࡾ࠶ࡃྜࡋࡲࡏࡳࢆ⪃ࠋࡍࡲࡏࢃࡀ࠺ࢆࡇࡿ࠶ࡀᰂ㏫ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋࡣࡋ ῶᑡࠊࡣࡇࡿ࠸࡚ࡁὶࣛࢫࡢࡾࡲ࠶ࡀࡢ࡛ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋㄪᩚࠋ࠺ࡻࡋࡲࡌࣆࠊࡣࣇࣛࢢࡢ⡿㧗࡛ࡲࡘࡣࢱ࣮ࢹࡢࢀࡽࡳ࡚࠸࠾ࡲ࠺ࡿ࠼࠸ࡓࡗࡲࠋࢇࡏࡲࡾ࠶ࡣ࡛ࢡ࣮ࣆ࡚ࡳ࡛⏘౯ࠊࡾ࠾࡚ࡋࡼᑐྍฎ⮬ື㌴㈍ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋ
§3
᭷ࢆపୗ㔠⼥ᅇ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡋࢆࡇࡿࡏࡉ㔠⼥༴㐺⪅⏕Ꮡ࠸࡚ࡗ࡞ࠋࡓࡋࡲࡇࡓࡋࡽࣃࢆ⏕ࡀࡇࡓ࠸࡚ࡗࡇࠋࡍ࡛ࡢࡓࡗࢃᙳ㡪࡛ࡶࢆࡣ࡛ࡢࡶࡿࢀࡉࠋࡍ࡛ࡢ࡞ᙳ㡪㸧⛬ᗘሗ ⣬ࡋࡲ࠸࡚ࢀࡉࡔࡿࡍࠊࡣ᭩ពࠋࡍ࡛࡚ࢀࡉ࡞࡚ࡍࡃ࡞࡛ࡅࡔ࡞࠺ࡼࡿࢀࡉࠋࡍ࡛ࡇ࠺࠸ࡓࢀࢃປാᅜ㝿ࡍࠋࡓࡋ࡛ࠋࡍ࡛ࡢࡶࡓࡋ⇍ࠋ࠺ࡻࡋࡲ࠼ࡀ୰㛫⇍ປാ⪅ࡇ࠸࡞ࢀࡇࠋࡍࡲࢀࡉ࠾ࠊ࡛ࡢ࠸ ࠊࡁࠋࡍࡲࡓࡋປാ㟂せࡓ࠸࡚ࡗ୰㛫⟶⌮୰㛫⟶⌮ᑓ㛛⫋࠸୰㛫⇍⦎ࠊࡣࢀࡇࠋࡍࡲࡾ࡞࠺ࡼࡿࡍࠋࡍࡲࡾ࡞࠾ᑐࣇࢩࡣࡣ⛬ᗘ⇍⦎ᗘࠋࡍࡲࡾ࡞ࡇࡿࡍ࣒ࢬࢽ࣓࢝ࡓࡋ࠺ࡇ࡚ࡗࡼ⥔ᣢ㞠㕌ࡢ࡞࣭ඹ᭷ ࡑࠋࡓࡋࡲࡁ࡚ࡅ࠺ࡑࡣ㜼ࡲࡲ࠸࡚ࡋࠋࡍᙳ㡪㸧ᙳࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋࡰࠊࡿ࡞࠺ࡼࡃᚲࠊ࠺ࡼࡿ࡞ࡢࢺࣟࢺࢹࡀࢻ࣮࢛ࣇࠊࡣࡘࡢࣂ࢝ࢆ࡛ࠖࡲ࡚࢝ࠕࡢࢱࣚࢺࡣࡢࡓࡋࢸࢫࢩࡋࡲࡾ࡞࣮ࢱࣥࢭ࣭ࢺࢵࣇࣟࣉࡀࠊࡀࢇࡏࡲࢀࡋࡶࡓࡗ࡞ࡣ࡛ࠋࡓࡋࡲࢀࡉࢆࡇࡿ࠶࡛࠺ࡼࡢࡇࡐ࡞ࡀࢥ ᑓ㛛ࡿࡍࣅ࣮ࢧࡸࡑࠊࡃ࠸࡚ࡋࡣࢆᾘ⪖ࢃࡃࡼࡿࡳࢆࢻࣛࢫࡢ⤌ࡲࡁ࡛ࡀࡇࡿࠋࡍࠋࡓࡋࡲࡾࢆ࣮ࢥ࡚ࣞࡋ࡞ࡽࢫࢭࣟࣉࡢ ࡣࣝࢹࣔࡢࡇࠋࡍ࡛࡛ࢇࡏࡲࡾࢃࠊࡣຎ࡞ࡼ࡛ࡲࢺࢫࢥࢺࢫࢥࡿࡍࡾ࡞ࡇࡃ࡙ὶ㏻ᚓ
§4
ࡣࠋࢇࡏࡲࢀࡋࡶᾏᕧᴗࢃຠ⋡ᛶ⤖ᢪࡶࡁࡿࢀࡽ࠼࡚ࡋࡿࡍࡶ࡚ࡆ㞠⏝ࠋࡍࡲࡾ࡞ࡇࡿࡅ〇ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋ᥎㐍ࡍࡾࡓࡋ࣒ࢸࢫࢩࡋࡲࡋࡲࢆᐜ᫆ࣥࢲࡁࡀ ࡍࣥࢨࢹࢆࢶࣕࢩ࠸࡚ࢀࡉࡼฟࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋࡲࢀࡽ࠼ከᅜ⡠㏕ᅗࡽࡉࡀࠋࡍࡲࡋࡗ࠸ࡁ࠾࡚ࡋࢆḟᙳ㡪࡞ࡘࡇࡿࡏࡉࡍࠋࡍࡲࡾ࠶ࡀⅬࡢࡇࠋࡍࡲࡾ࠶ࡶ࡛ࢫࣥࣕࢳࠊࡀࡍ࡛ࠋࡍࡲࡋࡿ࠸࡚ࡗᗏሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡ ࡍࡲࢀࡋࡶࡿࡾ࡞ࡣ࡚࠸ࡘࢆᙳ㡪࠺ࡼࡓࡗ࡞ࡇ࡚ࢀࡉࠋࡍࡲ࠸⛣⾜࠸ࡓࡋࡗከࠊࡿࡽ᪂⯆࡞ࡣ࡛ࡀࠋࡍࡲࢀࡽ࠼ࡢࠎྛ࠺ࡼࡓࡆ࡚࠸࠸࣮ࣥࢱࣃどࠋࡍࡲ࠸୍ ➨ࡋ⦎ࡋຠ⋡ⓗࡑࠊࡓࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡋ࡞ࡣ⳦ẘࡲࡉࠊᐩ⥲㐣࡚ࡗ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡽ࡞ࡤࢀࡅ࡞ࡉࡓ‶ࢆ㈈ᕸࢀࡉࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡗ࡞࠺ࡼࡿᑐᛂࢆḟ୍⯡ࢆ ᪂࡞ࡣ࡛ࡢࡿࡍࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡁ࡚ࢀࠊࢀ࠶࡛ࣅࣞࢸࣁࡢࡑࠊࡣ࡛ࡳࡢࡋࡼࡓࡋୗⴠࡢࠊࡣࠋࢇࡏࡲࢀࡋࡶ࠺ࡘࡋ〇ရࢿࢪࣅࡓࡋ࠺ࡑࠋࡍ࡛ࡇࡿࡍ࣒࣮࢛ࣇࢺࢵࣛࣉࡢࢫࣅ࣮ࢧ࡞ࡲࡊࡲࡉࢆࡁ࡛ࡢ࡛ࡢࡡࡲࡣ௨๓ࠋࡍࡲࡾ࠶ࡀࣞࣈࡢ⌧Ⓨ୍㒊࠺ࡇࠊࡀࢇࡏࡲࡾࢃࡣⅬࡢࡘࡢࠊࡋࡋࠋࡍࡲࡏࡉ࣐ࢫ࣑ࡓࢀࡽ
§5
ࠋ࠺ࡻࡋ࡛ㄢ㢟ࢀ≧ࡁࡀࢺࢫࢥࡗࡼ⦎ᗘ⏕㧗ࢀࡒࢀࡑࠊ࡛ࡢࡍࡲࡾ࡞ࠋࡍࡲ࠸ࡢ⏕⏕⏘≀␃ពࡉࡍࡸࡋࠋࡍ࡛Ⅼ࠺࠸ࡿࡏࡉࠊࡋࡶࠋࡍࡲ࠼☜ಖ࡞ࡋࠋࢇࡏࡲࢀࡋࡶ࠸࡞ࡽ࡞ࡤࢀࡅㄢ㢟ᩍ⫱Ỉࡍࡲࡋ ࣎ࡿࡍࡿࡍࡇࡿࡍ୰⛬పࡗࡓࢃࠊ࠺ࡼࡿࡁ࡛ࡀࡇࡿ࠼ࡀࡇࡿ࠼ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡁ࡚ࡗ࡞㞠⏝ᶵ㸦㏵ࡢࡶࡿࡁ࡛㐠ࡢࡇࠋࡍࡲࡾ࠶ࡀࡇࡓࡋࡀࡳ࠺ࡼࡿ࠸࡚ࠋࡍࡲ࠸࡚ࡌㄢ㢟ࡲ࠸࡚ࡋࡿࡅ࠾୰ኸ㖟ࠊࡵࡓࡢࡇࠋࡍࡲࡾ࠶ࡀ࡞࠺ࡼࡓࡗ࡞ࡋࡔ ⦆ࡇ࠺ࠋࡍࡲࡁ࡛ࡶࡇࡿ࠼ᡂ㛗ᇶࠊࡣࠊࡀࢇࡏࡲࡾ࠶ࡣ࡛ࡢࡶࡿࡍࡲࡊࡲࡉࡿࡍ࠺ࡼ࠼ࡇࠊࡣ࡚ࡋࡓࡋࠊࡾ࠾࡚࠼ࡿࢀࡽࠋࡍࡲࢀࡉྛࡏࡲࡾ࠶ࡣ࡛⤒῭㐙⾜┤ࡀࡕࡓࡽࡀ࡞ࡇࡿࡍࡗ࡞ࠋࡍ࡛௨ ୖ ேཱྀືែ䛾ኚ䚸ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᙳ㡪䛸ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᙳ㡪䛸䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䠖䜾䝹 䜔䜔㛗䛔┠䛷༴ᶵᚋ䛾ୡ⏺䜢⪃䛘䜛䝖䝹䝁ඹᅜ୰ኸ㖟⾜䛻䛚䛡䜛䝇䝢䝏䝖䝹䝁ඹᅜ୰ኸ㖟⾜䛻䛚䛡䜛䝇䝢䞊䝏᪥ᮏ㖟⾜⥲すᮧῤᙪ䛿䛨䜑䛻䝖䝹䝁䛸᪥ᮏ:/g3䝆 ⦕ ༠䛿䛨䜑䛻䜰䝆䜰䛾እ⦕䛻䛚䛡䜛ዲ䛸༠ຊ2
§6
ㅮ₇䛾ᵓᡂㅮ₇䛾ᵓᡂ❶ ༴ᶵᚋ ⤒῭ 䛚㩭䛺䛝• 䠍❶:/g3༴ᶵᚋ䛾⤒῭䛻䛚䛔䛶㩭᫂䛻䛺䛳䛶䛝䛯3䛴䛾ືྥ– 䝭䝇䝬䝑䝏䚸ᡂ㛗ຊ䛾పୗ䚸㈤㔠䝕䝣䝺䛾ᗏᡴ䛱❶ 䛖㇟ 䠎❶:/g3䛣䛖䛧䛯⌧㇟䛾ཎᅉ– ேཱྀືែ䚸䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ䚸ሗ㏻ಙᢏே ືែ䚸䝷䝅䝖ㄪᩚ䚸ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䚸䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䠏❶ ᚋ䛾ኚ䛸ᨻ⟇ 䛾ྵព 䠏❶:/g3ᚋ䛾ኚ䛸ᨻ⟇䜈䛾ྵព3䠍❶༴ᶵᚋ䛾⤒῭᪥ᮏ䛸⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛ປാᕷሙ䛾䝭䝇䝬䝏䠍❶/g888᪥ᮏ䛸⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛ປാᕷሙ䛾䝭䝇䝬䝑䝏䚸ᡂ㛗ຊ䛾పୗ䛚䜘䜃䜲䞁䝣䝺䛾ືྥᡂ㛗ຊ䛾పୗ䛚䜘䜃䜲䜲䞁䛾ືྥ4
§7
༴ᶵᚋ䛾⤒῭䛾≉ᚩ༴ᶵᚋ䛾⤒῭䛾≉ᚩ ປാᕷሙ䛻䛚䛡䜛䝭䝇䝬䝑䝏䛾ቑປാᕷሙ䛻䛚䛡䜛䝭䝇䝬䝑䝏䛾ቑ ᡂ㛗ຊ䛾ⴠ䛱㎸䜏䝡 ᴗ ㈤㔠ప ഴྥ ᗏᡴ䛱 䝃䞊䝡䝇ᴗ䛾㈤㔠పୗഴྥ䛾ᗏᡴ䛱5䝧䝞䝸䝑䝆᭤⥺䠄⡿ᅜ䠅䛾እഃ䝅䝣䝖䝞䝸䝑䝆᭤⥺䠄⡿ᅜ䠅䛾እഃ䝅䝣䝖4(%)2000M123.5㻞㻜㻜㻜㻹㻝㻞㻙㻞㻜㻜㻟㻹㻢㻞㻜㻜㻟㻹㻢㻙㻞㻜㻜㻢㻹㻝㻞㻞㻜㻜㻢㻹㻝㻞㻙㻞㻜㻜㻥㻹㻢㻞㻜㻜㻥㻹㻢㻙(x,/g3y)=2012M5:/g3(8.2,/g32.7)3Ḟဨ⋡2012M6:/g3(8.2,/g32.7)2006M12:2.5Ḟ (4.4,/g33.2)1522009M6:(9.5,/g31.8)2003M6:(6.3,/g32.4)1.5㻟㻠㻡㻢㻣㻤㻥㻝㻜㻝㻝ኻᴗ⋡ (%)ᚋᩘᖺ ኻᴗ⋡䛿㧗䜑䛷᥎⛣?6ᚋᩘᖺ䚸ኻᴗ⋡䛿㧗䜑䛷᥎⛣?/g3
§8
䝧䝞䝸䝑䝆᭤⥺䠄᪥ᮏ䠅䝧䝞䝸䝑䝆᭤⥺䠄᪥ᮏ䠅4(%)42012Q231997Q1Ḟဨ⋡21975Q12002Q11234567ኻᴗ⋡ (%)7䜸䞊䜽䞁䛾ἲ๎䛸ᡂ㛗ຊ䠄⡿ᅜ䠅20䜸䜽䞁䛾ἲ๎䛸ᡂ㛗ຊ䠄⡿ᅜ䠅1015y = -1.8573x + 3.61655101949Q1-2000Q4GDP䚸y = -0.8999x + 2.475902000Q4-2007Q3ᅄ༙ᮇ๓ᮇẚᖺ⋡䚸%y = -1.1296x + 1.457-10-52007Q3-2012Q22012Q2-15-4 -2024688ኻᴗ⋡䚸๓ᮇᕪᖺ⋡䚸%
§9
⡿ᅜ䛾▷ᮇ䝣䜱䝸䝑䝥䝇᭤⥺ 㻔䝃䞊䝡䝇⏘ᴗ㻕⡿ᅜ䛾▷ᮇ䝣䜱䝸䝑䝥䝇᭤⥺ 㻔䝃䝡䝇 ⏘ ᴗ 㻕㻌䝃䞊䝡䝇⏘ᴗ䛻䛚䛡䜛㞠⏝䝁䝇䝖䞉䜲䞁䝣䝺䛸ኻᴗ⋡41981.Q1—2012.Q2121981Q1-1982Q43㔠ୖ᪼⋡䚸%8101982Q4-1986Q11986Q1-1995Q11995Q1-2005Q12005Q1-2012Q2%2㈤㔠2012Q2:(8.2,/g32.1)68㈤㔠ୖ᪼⋡䚸%y = -0.2947x + 4.5457R² = 0.8912241䝃䝤䝥䝷䜲䝮䞉䝞䝤䝹䛾䝢䞊䜽௨㝆02246810122012Q2:(8.2,/g32.1)024681012ኻᴗ⋡䚸% 924681012ኻᴗ⋡䚸%䜲䞁䝣䝺ᇶㄪ䛾ୖ᪼䠄⡿ᅜ䠅䠄๓ᖺẚ䚸䠂䠅PCE䜲䞁䝣䝺⋡๓ᖺẚ䠄ส䜚㎸䜏ᖹᆒ䠅45䠄๓ᖺẚ䚸䠂䠅3120 䝃䞊䝡䝇䛿䚸ᐙィᾘ㈝ᨭฟ䛾63%䜢༨䜑䛶䛔䜛䚹-2-103/0104/0105/0106/0107/0108/0109/0110/0111/0112/011003/0104/0105/0106/0107/0108/0109/0110/0111/0112/01ಶேᾘ㈝ᨭฟ䠄PCE䠅 PCEส䜚㎸䜏ᖹᆒ
§10
䜸䞊䜽䞁䛾ἲ๎䛸ᡂ㛗ຊ䠄᪥ᮏ䠅15䜸䜽䞁䛾ἲ๎䛸ᡂ㛗ຊ䠄᪥ᮏ䠅10151980Q2-2000Q4y = -1.7075x + 3.1546051980Q22000Q42000Q4-2007Q3y = -1.0212x + 1.2756y =- 2.0552x + 0.3685-502007Q3-2012Q2GDP䚸ᅄ༙ᮇ๓ᮇẚᖺ⋡䚸%y 2.0552x 0.3685-10-20-15-1.5- 1 .0- 0 .50.00 .51 .01 .52 .02 .5. . . . . . . . .ኻᴗ⋡䚸๓ᮇᕪᖺ⋡䚸%11᪥ᮏ䛾▷ᮇ䝣䜱䝸䝑䝥䝇᭤⥺ 㻔䝃䞊䝡䝇⏘ᴗ㻕᪥ᮏ䛾▷ᮇ䝣䜱䝸䝑䝥䝇᭤⥺ 㻔䝃䝡䝇 ⏘ ᴗ 㻕㻌(%)䝃䞊䝡䝇⏘ᴗ䛻䛚䛡䜛㈤㔠䜲䞁䝣䝺䛸ኻᴗ⋡1991.Q1—2012.Q268(%)ື⏘䝞䝤䝹䛾䝢䞊䜽௨㝆24ୖ᪼⋡2012Q2:/g3(4.4,/g30.3)02㈤㔠ୖy = -6.053ln(x) + 8.9103-4-2䠄䝃䞊䝡䝇⏘ᴗ䛾㈤㔠䛿䚸ᘓタᴗ䛾㈤㔠䛷㏆ఝ䠅-6123456ኻᴗ⋡(%) 12㈤㔠䛷㏆ఝ䠅
§11
䜲䞁䝣䝺ᇶㄪ䛾ୖ᪼䠄᪥ᮏ䠅䜲䞁䝣䝺ᇶㄪ䛾ୖ᪼䠄᪥ᮏ䠅3㸣㸧21-10-2 CPI䠄⥲ྜ䠅CPI 䠄10%ส䜚㎸䜏ᖹᆒ䠅䝃䞊䝡䝇䛿䚸CPI䠄㝖䛟⏕㩭㣗ရ䠅ᵓᡂ㡯┠䛾628%䜢༨䜑䜛ὀ:10ࢺ࢚࢘ࢆ3040506070809101112䠄䜚㎸ ᆒ䠅䛾62.8%䜢༨䜑䜛䚹ὀ:10ࡣࠊ࠼ࠊࢺ࢚࢘ࢆࢀࡒࢀࡑ࡛ࢫ࣮࣋10ࠋฟᡤ: ⥲ົ┬13୍ⓗ䛛Ọ⥆ⓗ䛛?ⓗ䛛Ọ⥆ⓗ䛛? ⡿ᅜ䛾ከ䛟䛾㆑⪅䛿୍ⓗ䛸ぢ䜛⡿ᅜ䛾ከ䛟䛾㆑⪅䛿 ⓗ䛸ぢ䜛– ⤒῭ᵓ㐀䛾ኚ䛷䛿䛺䛔ᅜ㝿㔠⼥༴ᶵ䛸䛔䛖䛝䛺㈇䛾䝅䝵䝑䜽䛻䜘䜛䜒䛾– ᅜ㝿㔠⼥༴ᶵ䛸䛔䛖䛝䛺㈇䛾䝅䝵䝑䜽䛻䜘䜛䜒䛾– 㟂せ่⃭䛷ᛴ㏿ᅇ䛾ྍ⬟ᛶ⡿ᅜ㆟ண⟬ᒁ䠄CBO䠅䛻䜘䜛₯ᅾᡂ㛗⋡᥎ィ䠄ᖺᖹᆒᡂ㛗⋡ 䠂䠅䠄ᖺᖹᆒᡂ㛗⋡䚸䠂䠅⤒῭య1950-19911992-20012002-20112012-20132014-2022ᐇ⦼ ண 19912001201120132022₯ᅾ㻳㻰㻼 3.63.22.31.72.3₯ᅾປാຊ 1.71.30.90.40.514₯ᅾປാ⏕⏘ᛶ* 1.81.91.41.31.8* ₯ᅾGDP䛸₯ᅾປാຊ䛾ẚ⋡ ฟᡤ䠖㻯㼛㼚㼓㼞㼑㼟㼟㼕㼛㼚㼍㼘㻌㻮㼡㼐㼓㼑㼠㻌㻻㼒㼒㼕㼏㼑㻌㻔㻯㻮㻻㻕
§12
పᡂ㛗䛜㛗ᘬ䛟ྍ⬟ᛶపᡂ㛗䛜㛗ᘬ䛟ྍ⬟ᛶ ⌧Ⅼ䠄2012ᖺ8᭶䠅䜎䛷䚸ᬒẼᅇ䛾㏿ᗘ䛿䚸Ᏻᐃⓗ䛷䛿䛒䜛䛜䚸䛛䛺䜚㐜䛔䛿䚸Ᏻᐃⓗ䛷䛿䛒䜛䛜䚸䛛䛺䜚㐜 ᬒẼᅇ䛾䝟䝍䞊䞁䛜ኚ 㔠⼥༴ᶵ䛾ᛶ㉁䠄䝷䜲䞁䝝䞊䝖䛸䝻䝂䝣䛾◊✲䠅 ྛᅜ䛾䝟䝍䞊䞁䛜㢮ఝ䛧䛶䛚䜚䚸ᅜ㝿ⓗ䛺ඹ㏻せᅉ䛾Ꮡᅾ䜢♧၀せᅉ䛾Ꮡᅾ䜢♧၀15䠎❶䝭䝇䝬䝑䝏䛸పᡂ㛗䛾⫼ᚋ䛻䛒䜛䜒䛾㧗㱋 䝞䝷䞁䝇䝅䝖ㄪᩚ 䛺䜙䜃䛻/g888㧗㱋䚸䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ䚸䛺䜙䜃䛻ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛜⫋ሙ䚸䝞䝸䝳䞊䞉䝏䜵䞊䞁ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡ ⫋ሙ䚸䝸䛚䜘䜃䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䛻ཬ䜌䛧䛯ᙳ㡪16
§13
䠐䛴䛾ඹ㏻せᅉ䠐䛴䛾ඹ㏻せᅉ ேཱྀ䛂䝪䞊䝘䝇䛃䛛䜙ேཱྀ䛂㈇Ⲵ䛃䜈䛾⛣⾜ேཱྀ 䝪䝘䝇䛃䛛䜙ேཱྀ ㈇Ⲵ䛃䛾⛣⾜ 䝞䝤䝹ᔂቯᚋ䛾῝้䛺䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ 䝞䝤䝹ᔂቯᚋ䛾῝้䛺䝞䝷䞁䝇䝅䝖ㄪᩚ ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᗈ⠊ ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᗈ⠊䜾䝞䝹 䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹17ேཱྀືែ䛸䝞䝤䝹䠄ᐇ㉁ఫᏯ౯᱁ ᐇ㉁㈚ฟேཱྀືែ䛸䝞䝤䝹䠄ᐇ㉁ᆅ౯䞉ᐇ㉁㈚ฟ᪥ᮏ ⡿ᅜ1002.5䠄㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡䠅䠄ᐇ㉁ఫᏯ౯᱁䞉ᐇ㉁㈚ฟ䚸䢇䢛䡬䡴=100䠅1002.5䠄㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡䠅䠄ᐇ㉁ᆅ౯䞉ᐇ㉁㈚ฟ䚸䢇䢛䡬䡴=100䠅䝢䞊䜽:752.0752.0 䝢䞊䜽:/g31991/3᭶䝢䜽 :/g32005/12᭶501.5501.51991/3᭶25㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡ᐇ㉁ఫᏯ౯᱁(㺗㺎㺛㺚㺵㺎⡿ᅜ10㒔ᕷ⥲ྜ)ᐇ㉁㈚ฟ25㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡ᐇ㉁ᆅ౯ᐇ㉁㈚ฟ01.01955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015202020252030ᖺᐇ㉁㈚ฟ01.01955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015202020252030ᖺ18ὀ:㈚ฟ䠄᪥ᮏ䠅䛿䚸㡸㔠ྲྀᢅ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵䞉㈚ฟ䚸㈨㔠ᚠ⎔⤫ィ䚸᪥ᮏ㖟⾜㈚ฟ䠄⡿ᅜ䠅䛿䚸Loans/g3and/g3leases/g3in/g3bank/g3credit,/g3all/g3commercial/g3banks,/g3not/g3seasonally/g3adjusted,/g3/g3Federal/g3Reserve
§14
⌮ㄽ䛸ᐇド⌮ㄽ䛸ᐇドືែ 㡪䜢ཷ 䜛⤒῭ኚᩘ ேཱྀືែ䛾ᙳ㡪䜢ཷ䛡䜛⤒῭ኚᩘ䠖– ື⏘౯᱁ື⏘౯᱁ Takáts(Journal/g3of/g3Housing/g3Economics2012)䚸䛚䜘䜃䚸Nishimura/g3(Cambridge/g3Speech2011)– 㛗ᮇ㔠 Ichiueetal( BankofJapanWP 2012)Ichiueet/g3al/g3(Bank/g3of/g3Japan/g3WP/g32012)– ㈌ᖯ㟂せ䛸ື⏘౯᱁ Nishimuraand Takáts( 2012) Nishimura/g3and/g3Takáts(Bank/g3for/g3International/g3Settlements/g3WP/g32012) 䛭䛾䛾ඹ㏻せᅉ: 㐣ᗘ䛾ᴦほ(“ᗘ䛿㐪䛖”)䛭䛾䛾ඹ㏻せᅉ:/g3㐣ᗘ䛾ᴦほ ( ᗘ䛿㐪䛖 )19䝞䝤䝞䝤䝹䛸ேཱྀ㈇Ⲵ ᰂ㌾ᛶ䞉ὶືᛶ䛾పୗ 䜘䜚῝้䛩䜛䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ20
§15
⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛ὶືᛶ䛾పୗ⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛ὶືᛶ䛾పୗ㧗㱋䛸ఫᏯ౯᱁ୗⴠ䛾ᙳ㡪ఫᏯಖ᭷⪅䛾ὶື⋡䛾ኚ䠄2005/g88209ᖺ䚸䠂䠅21ฟᡤ:/g3The/g3Joint/g3Center/g3for/g3Housing/g3Studies/g3of/g3Harvard/g3University,/g3“The/g3State/g3of/g3the/g3Nation’s/g3Housing/g32010.”⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛㉳ᴗ⋡䛾పୗ⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛㉳ᴗ⋡䛾పୗ㉳ᴗ⋡3.43.6㉳ᴗ⋡(%)33.22.82.42.622.2949596979899200001020304050607080910112294959697989920000102030405060708091011ฟᡤ:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
§16
⡿ᅜ䜈䛾⛣Ẹ䛾ῶᑡ⛣Ẹ䛿䚸᭱䜒ὶືᛶ䛜㧗䛔ே䚻䛷䛒䜚䚸⡿ᅜ⤒῭䛾ᰂ㌾ᛶ䛻䛝䛟㈉⊩䛧䛶䛔䜛䛸ゝ䜟䜜⡿ᅜ 䛾⛣Ẹ䛾ῶᑡ䜜䛶䛔䜛䚹䛧䛛䛧䚸䚸䚸3,500⡿ᅜ䜈䛾⛣Ẹ䛸ẕᅜ䜈䛾ᖐᅜ(༓ே)25003,000⡿ᅜ䜈䛾⛣Ẹ ẕᅜ䜈䛾ᖐᅜ2,0002,5001,0001,50005002302000-022003-042005-062007-082009-10ฟᡤ: Steven A. Camarota "Immigration and Economic Stagnation: An Examination of Trends 2000 to 2010"᪥ᮏ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᰂ㌾ᛶ䞉ὶືᛶ䛾పୗ᪥ᮏ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᰂ㌾ᛶ ὶືᛶ䛾పୗ᪂つ㛤ᴗ䛸ᗫᴗ3.54.0(%)䝞䝤䝹ᔂቯᚋ䚸᪂つ㛤ᴗ䛿ᛴῶ2.53.01.52.0ᑐ㇟ⓗ䛻䚸ᗫᴗ䛿⦆䜔䛛䛺ୖ᪼䛻䛸䛹䜎䜛0.51.0䜔䛛䛺ୖ᪼䛻䛸䛹䜎䜛0.01981-19861987-19911992-1996㛤ᴗ⋡䠄᥎ィ䠅 ᗫᴗ⋡䠄ಽ⏘⋡䠅㛤ᴗ⋡䠄᥎ィ䠅 ᗫᴗ⋡䠄ಽ⏘⋡䠅ฟᡤ:/g3Nishimura/g3and/g3Kawamoto/g3(2003),/g3“Why/g3Does/g3the/g3Problem/g3Persist?:/g3“Rational/g3Rigidity”/g3and/g3the/g3Plight/g3of/g3Japanese/g3Banks,”/g3The/g3World/g3Economy,/g326/g3(2003),/g3301/g882324/g324
§17
῝้䛺䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ⌧ᅾ䛾⡿ᅜ䛾≧ἣ῝้䛺䝞䝷䞁䝇䝅䝖ㄪᩚᐇ㉁ఫᏯ౯᱁᥎⛣䛾ẚ㍑100110䠘ᐇ㉁ఫᏯ౯᱁䠚᪥ᮏ䠖1990/7᭶⡿ᅜ䠖2005/12᭶䠄䢇䢛䡬䡴=100䠅100110ᐇ㉁ఫᏯ౯᱁᥎⛣䛾ẚ㍑䠄䢇䢛䡬䡴=100䠅8090⡿ᅜ䠖2005/12᭶9010060707080405060᪥ᮏ䠖1987/1᭶⡿ᅜ䠖1998/1᭶᪥ᮏ䠖2001/5᭶50603040ᮾி㸦㺩㺽㺎㺖=1990/7᭶㸧⡿ᅜ㸦㺗㺎㺛㺚㺵㺎10㺩㺽㺎㺖=2005/12᭶㸧40ᮾி㸦㺩㺽㺎㺖=1990/7᭶㸧⡿ᅜ㸦㺗㺎㺛㺚㺵㺎10㺩㺽㺎㺖=2005/12᭶㸧㺩㺽㺎㺖=2007/9᭶㸧20䡿䢚䡬䡼: ᮾி䛿1987/1᭶䡚2008/12᭶䚹⡿ᅜ䡡䡵䡬䡹䡸䢓䡬10㒔ᕷ⥲ྜ䛿1998/1᭶䡚2012/5᭶ 2530-36-30-24-18-12 -6 t=0 +6+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66 +72 +78 +84㺩㺽㺎㺖㸸t=0᭶⡿ᅜ䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ䛜䜒䛯䜙䛩ᑐ↷ⓗ䛺ᙳ㡪䢄䡲䢚䡿䡤䢈䢚䡰䡴䡮䡿䡤ẚ⋡ ඖᡶ䛔䛾ᑐྍฎศᡤᚓẚ⋡33(%)15 (%)䢄䡲䡿䡤䢈䡡䡰䡴䡮䡿䡤ẚ⋡ ඖᡶ䛔䛾ᑐྍฎศᡤᚓẚ⋡(Debt Service Ratio)3114272913251223112109101112/1Q1080859095000510ฟᡤ䠖Zillow ฟᡤ䠖FRB 26
§18
⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛⏘ᴗ㛫䛾ᅇ䝨䞊䝇䛾㐪䛔⡿ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛⏘ᴗ㛫䛾ᅇ 䝇䛾㐪䛔ప㏞䛩䜛ఫᏯᕷሙ ᅇ䛩䜛⮬ື㌴㈍1500䠄༓ᡞ䚸ᖺ⋡䠅20䠄100ྎ䚸ᖺ⋡䠅1510001550010ᬒẼᚋ㏥ᮇ᪂⠏ఫᏯ㈍5ᬒẼᚋ㏥ᮇ⮬ື㌴㈍27081838587899193959799010305070911081838587899193959799010305070911㔠⼥䝅䝇䝔䝮䛾ᶵ⬟䛸㔠⼥䝅䝇䝔䝮䛾ᶵ⬟䛸䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ 㔠⼥ᶵ㛵䛾⮬㌟䛾῝้䛺䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䝖ㄪ 㔠⼥ᶵ㛵䛾⮬㌟䛾῝้䛺䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ䛻䜘䛳䛶䚸ຠ⋡ⓗ䛺㔠⼥௰ᶵ⬟䛜㜼ᐖ䛥䜜䜛䛛䜒䛧䜜䛺䛔( ᖺ㡭䛾᪥ᮏ)䜜䜛䛛䜒䛧䜜䛺䛔(䠖1997ᖺ㡭䛾᪥ᮏ)Ⰻമᶒ䛾ቑຍ䛻䜘䛶 ⮬↛Ὲử䝯䜹䝙䝈 Ⰻമᶒ䛾ቑຍ䛻䜘䛳䛶䚸⮬↛Ὲử䝯䜹䝙䝈䝮䛜ᶵ⬟䛻䚹㻞㻤
§19
ࣝࢿࣃศᯒ㸦 ᮏ ᖺ ᖺ㸧ศᯒ㸦᪥ᮏࠊ1994ᖺ-1998ᖺ㸧Ꮡ⥆ᴗ䛸㏥ฟᴗ䛾せ⣲⏕⏘ᛶ䝅䝱䝗䜴㒊ศ䠖Ꮡ⥆ᴗ䜘䜚䜒㏥ฟᴗ䛾᪉䛜⏕⏘ᛶ䛜㧗䛔<<<<㻞㻥ฟᡤ䠖Nishimura, Nakajima, Kiyota (2005) “Does Natural Selection Mechanism Still Work in Severe Recessions? –Examination of the Japanese Economy in the 1990s- “ Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 58:1 (2005), 53-78ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᗈ⠊䛺ᙳ㡪ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᗈ⠊䛺ᙳ㡪 ປാ⪅䛻ᴟ䜢䜒䛯䜙䛩䠄ປാᕷሙ䠅ປാ⪅䛻ᴟ䜢䜒䛯䜙䛩䠄ປാᕷሙ䠅– 䛒䜛⛬ᗘ」㞧䛺సᴗ䜒䚸Ᏻ౯䛻“䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮”䛷䛝䜛䠄AI➼䠅䜛䠄AI➼䠅 䝞䝸䝳䞊䞉䝏䜵䞊䞁䛻ᴟ䜢䜒䛯䜙䛩䠄〇ရᕷሙ䠅– 㔞⏕⏘ᢏ⾡䛿䚸䜒䛿䜔┈䛾※Ἠ䛷䛿䛺䛔㔞⏕⏘ᢏ⾡䛿䚸䜒䛿䜔┈䛾※Ἠ䛷䛿䛺䛔䠄䝻䝪䝑䝖➼䛾ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡㛵㐃㈨ᮏ㈈䛻䜘䛳䛶௦᭰䛥䜜䜛䠅௦᭰䛥䜜䜛䠅 ᰂ㌾䛺❧ᆅኚ᭦䛜ྍ⬟䛻䠄䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䠅30
§20
୰⛬ᗘ䛾⇍⦎ᗘ䜢せ䛩䜛ປാ䛾႙ኻ2007ᖺ䛛䜙2011ᖺ䜎䛷䛾పୗᣦᩘ㧗⇍⦎ປാప⇍⦎ປാ୰⇍⦎ປാ୰⇍⦎ປാ䜾䝹䝥䠎䜾䝹䞊䝥䠐య31ฟᡤ: Faberman, R. Jason, and Bhashkar Mazumder, “Is there a skills mismatch in the labor market?” Chicago Fed Letter, July 2012, Figu re 4.䜾䝹䞊䝥䠑䠄㧗⇍⦎䠅䠄ప⇍⦎䠅䜾䝹䞊䝥䠎䜾䝹䝥䠐䜾䝹䞊䝥䠍䠄ప⇍⦎䠅䜾䝹䞊䝥䠏䠄୰⇍⦎䠅య⫋ሙ䛻䛚䛡䜛ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᙳ㡪⫋ሙ䛻䛚䛡䜛ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᙳ㡪ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡୍⯡๓㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ㻘㻌 ㈤㔠㻌㻌㻌㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ㻘㻌 ㈤㔠㻌㻌㻌㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ㻘㻌 ㈤㔠㻌㻌㻌ປാ౪⤥᭤⥺㻌ປാ౪⤥᭤⥺㻌wH 㻌wປാ౪⤥᭤ ⥺ປാ㟂せ᭤⥺䠙㻌㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ᭤⥺㻌㻌ປാ౪⤥᭤⥺wM 㻌wL 㻌ປാ㟂せ᭤⥺䠙㻌㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ᭤⥺㻌㻌㻌ປാ㟂せ᭤⥺䠙㻌㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ᭤⥺㻌㻌㻌䝖䝑䝥䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖㻌㻗㧗 ᗘ ᑓ 㛛 ⫋㻌㻌୰ 㛫 ⟶ ⌮ ⫋ 㻌 ୍ ⯡ ປ ാ ⪅ 㻌౪⤥㻌 ౪ ⤥౪⤥㻌 ౪⤥ᑓ㛛⫋ᒙ㻌32ฟᡤ䠖すᮧῤᙪ,/g3᪥ᮏ⤒῭ ぢ䛘䛦䜛ᵓ㐀㌿,/g3᪥ᮏ⤒῭᪂⪺♫,/g32004ᖺ,/g3pp./g376/g88281/g3
§21
⫋ሙ䛻䛚䛡䜛ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᙳ㡪䠄⥆䛝䠅㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ ㈤㔠㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ ㈤㔠ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡୍⯡ᚋ:/g3⏕⏘ᛶ䛿䛛䛺䜚ୖ᪼䛩䜛䜒䛾䛾䚸䚸䚸㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ 㻘㻌㈤㔠㻌㻌㻌㻌㝈⏺⏕⏘ᛶ 㻘㻌㈤㔠㻌㻌㻌୰㛫⟶⌮⫋W’H㻌୰㛫⟶⌮⫋WH୰㛫⟶⌮⫋䛾ᾘ⁛㻌⏕⏘ᛶྥୖ㻌୰㛫⟶⌮⫋䛾”ᾘ⁛”WL⏕⏘ᛶྥୖ㻌W’L㻌WL䝖䝥䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖 ⯡ປാ⪅䠇ᪧ୰㛫⟶⌮⫋⏕⏘ᛶྥ౪⤥౪⤥⤒Ⴀ ᑓ㛛⫋ᒙ䝖䝑䝥䝬䝛䝆䝯䞁䝖㻌㻗㻌㧗ᗘᑓ㛛⫋㻌୍⯡ປാ⪅䠇ᪧ୰㛫⟶⌮⫋㻌 ౪⤥㻌౪⤥㻌㻌33⤒Ⴀ࣭ᑓ㛛⫋ᒙሗ㸧ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛜䝞䝸䝳䞊䞉䝏䜵䞊䞁䛻䛘䜛ᙳ㡪 ᴗ⤌⧊䜈䛾ᙳ㡪ሗ䛾ఏ㐩䛸ฎ⌮ᢏ⾡䛾ྥୖ䛻䜘䜚 ⏕⏘ᕤ⛬– ሗ䛾ఏ㐩䛸ฎ⌮ᢏ⾡䛾ྥୖ䛻䜘䜚䚸⏕⏘ᕤ⛬䛾ㄪᩚ䜢⾜䛖ᢏ⬟䛿䚸౯್䛜ୗⴠ 䝡䝆䝛䝇䞉䝰䝕䝹䜈䛾ᙳ㡪㝈⏺⏕⏘㈝⏝䛜ⴭ䛧䛟పୗ䛧 ⏕⏘≀䛾౯᱁䛜– 㝈⏺⏕⏘㈝⏝䛜ⴭ䛧䛟పୗ䛧䚸⏕⏘≀䛾౯᱁䛜䛛䛴䛶䛺䛔⛬పୗປ ປാᕷሙ䛸䛾┦స⏝– 㞠⏝ฟ䛾ῶᑡ㞠⏝ฟ䛾ῶᑡ34
§22
Ⴀᴗ┈⋡䠄ᕝୖ䛸ᕝୗ䠅ᾮᬗ䝔䝺䝡䠄Ⴀᴗ┈⋡ %䠅 ኴ㝧㟁ụ䠄Ⴀᴗ┈⋡ 䠅Ⴀᴗ┈⋡䠄ᕝୖ䛸ᕝୗ䠅4050䠄Ⴀᴗ┈⋡䚸%䠅4050㝧㟁䠄Ⴀᴗ┈⋡䚸䠂䠅304030402020010010-10 -10-20䜺䝷䝇ᇶᯈ ගᏛ䝣䜱䝹䝮 ᐇ㒊ᮦ ᾮᬗ䝟䝛䝹䝉䝑䝖 ᑠ-20䝫䝸䝅䝸䝁䞁䞉䜴䜶䝝䝉䝹䚸䝰䝆䝳䞊䝹䝅䝇䝔䝮35ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛸䜾䝻䝞䝹ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛸䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹 ᅜቃ䜢㉺䛘䜛㏻ಙ䞉㐃ᦠ䛾䝁䝇䝖䛜పୗ– ᭱ᑠ䛾䝁䝇䝖䛷᭱䛾⏕⏘≀䜢ᚓ䜙䜜䜛䝛䝑䝖䝽䞊䜽䛾ᵓ⠏– 䝛䝑䝖䝽䞊䜽⤌䜏䛘䛾ᰂ㌾ᛶ ㈤㔠䜈䛾ᅽຊ䠄୍ᒙ䛾ᴟ䠅36 ᡃ䚻䛿䛹䛣䛻䛔䜛䛾䛛㻫ᡃ䚻䛿䛹䛣䛻䛔䜛䛾䛛㻫 ඛ㐍ᅜ䛻䛚䛡䜛పᡂ㛗䛜㛗ᮇ 䛸䛝䛸䛧䛶⏕䛨䜛㈇䛾䝅䝵䝑䜽䛾ᙳ㡪䜢ཷ䛡䜔䛩䛔䛩䛔ᴟ䛜ඛ㗦 ᴟ䛜ඛ㗦37䠏❶ᑗ᮶䛻ఱ䛜ᚅ䛳䛶䛔䜛䛛䠏❶38
§23
䜾䝻䝞䝹䛺せᅉ䛾ᑗ᮶ᒎᮃ䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䛺せᅉ䛾ᑗ᮶ᒎᮃ ேཱྀ䛂䝪䞊䝘䝇䛃䛛䜙ேཱྀ䛂㈇Ⲵ䛃䜈 ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ᙳ㡪ቑ 䠄䝞䝷䞁䝇䝅䝖ㄪᩚ䛸䜾䝻䝞䝹 /ᴟ 䠄䝞䝷䞁䝇䞉䝅䞊䝖ㄪᩚ䛸䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹/ᴟ䛿┬␎䠅39ேཱྀ䛂䝪䞊䝘䝇䛃䛛䜙ேཱྀ䛂㈇Ⲵ䛃䜈ேཱྀ䛂䝪䞊䝘䝇䛃䛛䜙ேཱྀ䛂㈇Ⲵ䛃䜈 ୡ⏺䛾ከ䛟䛾ᆅᇦ䛷 ேཱྀ䛂䝪䝘䝇䛃ẁ㝵䛛 ୡ⏺䛾ከ䛟䛾ᆅᇦ䛷䚸ேཱྀ䛂䝪䞊䝘䝇䛃ẁ㝵䛛䜙ேཱྀ䛂㈇Ⲵ䛃ẁ㝵䛻䝅䝣䝖 ㌿Ⅼ䠖– 䜰䝆䜰䠖2015ᖺ㡭– ୰༡⡿䠄䝤䝷䝆䝹䞉䝏䝸䠅䠖2015/g8822020ᖺ㡭ὶືᛶపୗ ᰂ㌾ᛶపୗ ₯ᅾᡂ㛗ຊపୗ ὶືᛶపୗ䚸ᰂ㌾ᛶపୗ䚸₯ᅾᡂ㛗ຊపୗ䛿䚸㏆䛔ᑗ᮶䛻⌧ᐇ䛾䜒䛾䛻40 ேཱྀືែ䠄䜰䝆䜰䠅㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡3.02.52.0 㡑ᅜ㤶 1.5୰ᅜ䝍䜲䜲䞁䝗䝛䝅䜰5 䜲䞁䝗䝛䝅䜰᪥ᮏ411.01955196519751985199520052015202520352045ேཱྀືែ䠄䝤䝷䝆䝹䜔䝏䝸➼䛾୰༡⡿ㅖᅜ䠅㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡ேཱྀືែ䠄䝤䝷䝆䝹䜔䝏䝸➼䛾୰༡⡿ㅖᅜ䠅㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡2.520 䝏䝸2.0 䝏䝸䝤䝷䝆䝹䝁䝻䞁䝡䜰1.5䝯䜻䝅䝁䜰䝹䝊䞁䝏䞁1.0䝨䝹䞊⡿ᅜ421955196519751985199520052015202520352045
§24
㧗㱋䛿ྠ䛻㉳䛣䜛䜟䛡䛷䛿䛺䛔㧗㱋䛿ྠ䛻㉳ 䜛䜟䛡䛷䛿䛺᪥ᮏ䛸䝖䝹䝁䛾㏫ᚑᒓேཱྀẚ⋡2.52.0᪥ᮏ䝖䝹䝁1.51.0431955196519751985199520052015202520352045㧗㱋䜈䛾ᑐᛂ㧗㱋䜈䛾ᑐᛂⱝᖺᒙேཱྀ䛾ῶᑡ ⱝᖺᒙேཱྀ䛾ῶᑡⱝᖺᒙ䛻㈍䛩䜛䛰䛡䛷䛿䝡䝆䝛䝇䛿ᣑ䛧䛺䛔– ⱝᖺᒙ䛻㈍䛩䜛䛰䛡䛷䛿䚸䝡䝆䝛䝇䛿ᣑ䛧䛺䛔 㧗ᖺ㱋ᒙ䛾ᾘ㈝⪅䛿ከᵝ㧗ᖺ㱋ᒙ䛾ᾘ㈝⪅䛿ከᵝ– 㠀䝬䝇䞉䝬䞊䜿䝔䜱䞁䜾ᡓ␎䛾ᚲせᛶ ຬẼ䛵䛡䜙䜜䜛䜘䛖䛺ೃ䜒– ≉䛻᪥ᮏ䛾ᑠศ㔝44 ᗈ⠊䛩䜛ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䜈䛾ᑐᛂᗈ⠊䛩䜛ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䜈䛾ᑐᛂ᪂䛯䛺 ㍑ඃ ᪂䛯䛺ẚ㍑ඃ 䝞䝸䝳䞉䝏䜵䞁䛾ホ౯ 䝞䝸䝳䞊䞉䝏䜵䞊䞁䛾ホ౯– ᕝୖ䜈䛾䝅䝣䝖䛛䚸ᕝୗ䜈䛾䝅䝣䝖䛛䠛ᕝ 䛾䝅䝖䛛䚸ᕝୗ 䛾䝅䝖䛛 ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛾ேཱྀືែ– ඛ㐍ᅜ䞉᪂⯆ᅜ䛾᪉䛻䛸䛳䛶䚸ㄢ㢟䛷䛒䜛䛸ྠ䛻䝏䝱䞁䝇䛻䝏䝱䞁䝇45ኚ䛩䜛䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊㈿Ꮡ㔞ኚ䛩䜛䜶䝛䝹䜼 ㈿Ꮡ㔞 䝅䜵䞊䝹䜺䝇䛸䝍䜲䝖䜸䜲䝹䛻䜘䜚䚸㈨※㈿Ꮡ䝅䝹䜺䛸䝍䜲䝖䜸䜲䝹䜘䜚䚸㈨※㈿Ꮡ㔞䚸䜂䛔䛶䛿䚸ᆅᇦ㛫䛾ẚ㍑ඃ䛻ኚ䛜㉳䛣䜛㉳䜛46
§25
㧗㱋♫䛻䛚䛡䜛ㄢ㢟㧗㱋♫䛻䛚䛡䜛ㄢ㢟㧗㱋 ⱝᖺᒙ䛻䜘䜛ྠ㉁䛺㔞ᾘ㈝䛾௦䛛䜙㧗㱋 㧗㱋:/g3ⱝᖺᒙ䛻䜘䜛ྠ㉁䛺㔞ᾘ㈝䛾௦䛛䜙䚸㧗㱋ᒙ䛻䜘䜛ከᵝ䛧䛯䝙䝑䝏ᾘ㈝䛾௦䜈 /g206䝁䝇䝖䜢䛛䛡䛯⫙⌮⣽䜔䛛䛺ᑐᛂ䠄㧗䝇䝖䠅䛯⫙⌮⣽䜔䛛䛺ᑐᛂ䠄㧗䝁䝇䝖䠅 ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䠇㧗㱋 /g206ᕷሙ䝸䝍䞊䞁䠄㝈⏺ຠ⏝)䛜పୗ䛩䜛୍᪉䚸♫ⓗ䝸䝍䞊䞁䠄ᖹᆒຠ⏝䠅䛿ୖ᪼ 䛧䛯䛜䛳䛶 ♫ⓗ䛻䛿┈䛜䛒䜛 ᪉䛷ಶ䚻ே䛻䛸䛳 䛧䛯䛜䛳䛶䚸♫ⓗ䛻䛿┈䛜䛒䜛୍᪉䛷ಶ䚻ே䛻䛸䛳䛶䛿┈ᛶ䛜ప䛔䜘䛖䛺䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䜔䝃䞊䝡䝇䜢ಁ㐍䛧 ᑐ౯䜢ᨭᡶ䛖⤌䜏䜢⪃䛧䛺䛡䜜䜀䛺䜙䛺䛔䛧䚸ᑐ౯䜢ᨭᡶ䛖⤌䜏䜢⪃䛧䛺䛡䜜䜀䛺䜙䛺䛔47ேཱྀ䛜ⱝ䛟䚸ቑຍ䛧䛶䛔䜛⤒῭䛻䛚䛡䜛ㄢ㢟ேཱྀ䛜ⱝ䛟䚸ቑຍ䛧䛶䛔䜛⤒῭䛻䛚䛡䜛ㄢ㢟ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡௦䛻䛚䛡䜛ⱝᖺᒙ ▱㆑㇏ᐩ ሗ ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡௦䛻䛚䛡䜛ⱝᖺᒙ:/g3▱㆑㇏ᐩ䚸ሗ㏻䚸㧗䛔せồỈ‽䚸䜻䝱䝸䜰ᚿྥ ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䠇ⱝᖺேཱྀ䛾ቑ /g206“ᡂ㛗ᛶ䛾ప䛔”䛷䛿䛺䛟䚸”䜻䝱䝸䜰䡡䜰䝑䝥ฟ᮶䜛”䜢┦ᙜ䛾㔞 䛷䛿䛺䛟䚸䜻䝱䝸䜰䜰䝑䝥ฟ᮶䜛 䜢┦ᙜ䛾㔞䛷ฟ䛩䜛ᚲせ䛛 ᗈ⠊䛩䜛ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡ ୰⇍⦎ປ 䛧䛛䛧䚸ᗈ⠊䛩䜛ሗ㏻ಙᢏ⾡䛻䜘䛳䛶䚸୰⇍⦎ປാ䛿ῶᑡ䛩䜛ഴྥ 䛣䛾䛯䜑᪂䛧䛔䝍䜲䝥䛾”䜻䝱䝸䜰䡡䜰䝑䝥ฟ᮶䜛”/g3䜢ฟ䞉ಁ㐍䛩䜛ᚲせฟ ಁ㐍䛩䜛ᚲせ48
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୰ኸ㖟⾜䛻䛸䛳䛶䛾ㄢ㢟୰ኸ㖟⾜䛻䛸䛳䛶䛾ㄢ㢟㠀ఏ⤫ⓗᨻ⟇ ᥇⏝ 㠀ఏ⤫ⓗᨻ⟇䛾᥇⏝䛂ᡂ㛗ᇶ┙ᙉ䜢ᨭ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾㈨㔠౪⤥ 䛂ᡂ㛗ᇶ┙ᙉ䜢ᨭ䛩䜛䛯䜑䛾㈨㔠౪⤥䛃䠄᪥ᮏ㖟⾜䚸2010ᖺ6᭶௨㝆䠅– ⱥᅜ䛾䛂㈚ฟ䛾䛯䜑䛾㈨㔠౪⤥䛃ᨻ⟇䜒ྠ䛨䜘䛖䛺┠ⓗ䜢ᣢ䛳䛶䛔䜛䛸䜒⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䛺┠ⓗ䜢ᣢ䛳䛶䛔䜛䛸䜒⪃䛘䜙䜜䜛䚹 ☜䛛䛻䛛䛺䜚䛾㛫䛜䛛䛛䜛 ☜䛛䛻䚸䛛䛺䜚䛾㛫䛜䛛䛛䜛49End50