Summary of Economic Projections, September 20, 2023

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In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 19-20, 2023, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2023 to 2026 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy.

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"Appropriate monetary policy" is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.

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Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, September 2023

Change in real GDP: 2023 2.1; 2024 1.5; 2025 1.8; 2026 1.8; Longer run 1.8

Unemployment rate: 2023 3.8; 2024 4.1; 2025 4.1; 2026 4.0; Longer run 4.0

PCE inflation: 2023 3.3; 2024 2.5; 2025 2.2; 2026 2.0; Longer run 2.0

Core PCE inflation4: 2023 3.7; 2024 2.6; 2025 2.3; 2026 2.0

Federal funds rate: 2023 5.6; 2024 5.1; 2025 3.9; 2026 2.9; Longer run 2.5