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AIAI briefMeeting brief2026-04-28BoJ

BOJ Holds Policy Rate at 0.75% by 6–3 Vote

The Bank decided by a 6–3 vote to keep the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0.75%. Nakagawa, Takata and Tamura dissented. 12
The three dissenters proposed raising the rate to around 1.0%, citing upside risks to prices. The proposal was rejected by a majority. 12
The Outlook Report assumes Dubai crude starting at about $105 per barrel and falling to the $70s by the end of the projection period. It assumes Middle East effects ease and no large-scale supply chain disruption occurs. 1
Growth is expected to slow in fiscal 2026 on worsening terms of trade from higher oil prices, but to remain moderate. Growth is projected to rise gradually from fiscal 2027. 12
Core CPI inflation is projected in the upper 2% range for fiscal 2026, the lower 2% range for fiscal 2027 and about 2% for fiscal 2028. Compared with the previous outlook, fiscal 2026 growth is revised down and fiscal 2026 CPI is revised up significantly. 12
The Summary of Opinions was published on May 12 and the minutes on June 19. The opinions note that the Strait of Hormuz may take time to become commercially navigable, so oil prices could stay high for some time. 12

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